Istrazivanja i projektovanja za privreduJournal of Applied Engineering Science

The vehicle fleet in Serbia has an important average age, significant service cost, high energy consumption and high and uncontrolled emissions. There is an intention for quick and important change of its structure, but it is not easy to do. A dozen years in renewal delay should be redressed in the most rational way, having in mind needs, interests, and available domestic and foreign resources. Considering the example of the bus fleet in Serbia, the paper shows three models of fleet renewal, taking into account three most important parameters: the change of average vehicle age, the financial means needed for the purchase and capability of domestic bus industry to follow this process. For all of three models, the author estimated the dynamics of vehicle replacement, financial means needed, domestic resources engagement and global influence on the Serbian economy. The author analyzed the actual situation of vehicle fleet using the data of the Ministry of Interior Affaires, vehicle users and domestic bus industry. Available declarations and intentions are analyzed; the calculations of influence of such declarations to the realization of established objectives are made, as well as the generated costs of each model. The overall effect on the economy of the country is analyzed and a model of "sustainable development" is presented, taking in account all considered possibilities as well as their most important consequences.